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An analysis by Wassim Raad
The possibilities of a Middle East war, between the threats and the facts

The Israeli papers spoke about the readiness of Netanyahu’s government to address a military strike to Iran while many analysts linked the fabricated American accusations made by Obama’s administration to the Islamic Republic of Iran to such a possible attack through the creation of a climate of tensions between Riyadh and Tehran.

24 October 2011

Such a climate would then be exploited to ensure Saudi facilitations to the Israeli warplanes to target the Iranian nuclear facilities. Some are connecting these scenarios to the missile shield installed in Turkey to preempt a possible Iranian response which the Americans and the Israelis know will be conducted through heavy missile attacks targeting the Israeli depth.

Some are going even further by expecting the opening of the Syria, Lebanon and Gaza fronts and Iran’s bombardment of the American military bases in the Gulf.

The announcement made by American President Barack Obama regarding the full withdrawal of the American occupation forces from Iraq by the end of the year enhanced the belief in the ranks of some experts regarding the fact that the US is vacating the scene for a major regional war, thus preventing the Iraqi forces allied with Iran and the Revolutionary Guard’s special units from targeting the American troops.

There is no doubt that an important portion of the facts falls in the context of the psychological war waged by the Western camp against Iran and the forces of resistance and independence in the region.

Israel is going through a predicament and the swap deal in which Netanyahu was forced to succumb to the conditions of the Hamas command, convey the actual balance of powers between Israel and the resistance bloc in the region. The Israeli impotence in the face of the Gaza Strip is enough to prove the efficiency of the strategic deterrence capability enjoyed by this system that includes Iran, Syria and the resistance movements in Lebanon and Palestine. On the other hand, Israel is afraid of seeing Iraq –in the post-American withdrawal phase- turning into a key component in the latter regional bloc.

Moreover, it has become clear that any targeting of the resistance in Lebanon and Palestine will trigger regional war and that any military harassment of Syria, whether by Turkey, NATO or Israel will lead to such a war.

It is also obvious that an Israeli air raid against any location in Iran will not go by easily and will provoke a storm of missiles which will hit many positions in the occupied land of Palestine and the Gulf region. This will definitely not constitute a pleasant journey for any among the sides of the Western alliance, for its regional tools and for Israel of course.

New Orient News (Lebanon)
Editor in chief: Wassim Raad
Orient Tendencies No 52, 24 October, 2011.