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An analysis by Wassim Raad
The Rise of the Iranian Power and the New Balances

The ongoing Iranian maneuvers in the Gulf region and what surrounded them on the front of the dispute between Tehran and Washington, carried a series of important signs pointing to the nature of the changes occurring at the level of the international balance of powers and the mutating equations throughout the Arab Islamic East, especially following the defeats which affected the adventure of the American empire during the last ten years and particularity following the American escape from Iraq.

9 January 2012

Firstly, during these maneuvers, Iran showed its advanced military capabilities, confirmed the solidity of the strategic Iranian military formation and its superiority at the level of the land, sea and air forces. What the Iranians showcased constituted a model for the work of a military superpower on the global level, as it was concluded by military experts in the United States, Europe and Israel. Under the cover of the propaganda that downplayed the importance of the Iranian military equipment seen in the maneuvers, Western and Israeli circles expressed serious fears over the nature of the strategic and qualitative message carried by these maneuvers in all their details, in terms of the long range missiles, the quality of the war vessels and the competence of the Iranian air force.

Secondly, the most prominent and important success which was registered by these maneuvers and that consecrated Iran as a superpower around the world and the region, was seen in the high technical competence of the Iranian command, despite the superior capabilities enjoyed by Pentagon and NATO. Moreover, despite the presence of the American 5th Fleet and the mobilization of the spy satellites in the Gulf States, the West could not obstruct the launching of one among the Iranian missiles which were featured in the maneuver or hinder one step in the maneuvers that succeeded by 100%. At this level, the hijacking of the American reconnaissance aircraft proved the Iranians’ ability to infiltrate the Pentagon and intercept its codes, while the Americans were unable to do the same at the level of the Iranian codes and communications system used by all its forces and arms.

Thirdly, the political results carried by the Iranian show of power in the region have started to emerge and consecutively materialize, as the Americans assigned their man in Turkey, i.e. Ahmet Davutoglu, to mediate with the Islamic Republic of Iran to resume the negotiations. But what was not announced was the content of the talks during which the Iranians issued strong statements reflecting the new balances, whether in their response to the negotiations requests and conditions or in regard to the stringent position toward the Turkish involvement in the conspiracy against Syria.

Despite the signs heralding wide-scale war in the region and the American decision to carry out joint maneuvers with Israel in response to the Iranian ones, the reality imposing itself with the recognition of analysts and experts is that the rise of the Iranian superpower has started to govern America’s higher policies, especially in the Middle East.

Iran leading the forefront of the events instead of Syria

Iran has decided to launch its counterattack in the Gulf and the Hormuz Strait over several fronts at the same time, in a highly intelligent and accurate maneuver. It also opened the file of the uranium enrichment activities by announcing it was able to reach an enrichment level of 20%, which consequently meant it did not need the deal that was previously offered by Turkey and Brazil. Iran was also able to lure Washington and Europe’s capitals into a financial and oil war.

Indeed, with Washington, it opened the banks’ front by reaching out to China, which prompted the latter to issue a soft piece of advice to Washington to recant the unilateral sanctions. With Europe, it opened the file of the oil market by threatening to obstruct the oil trade in the Gulf region through its control over the Hormuz Strait, which prompted Washington to threaten to use force and Iran to respond with its powerful maneuvers. This caused Washington to retreat under the slogan that it was not seeking problems with anyone.

This American politeness was accompanied by a European escalation and Turkish messages. On one hand, Turkey reiterated its offer to resume its mediation at the level of the nuclear file following the double Iranian announcement about the enrichment activities and the willingness to negotiate, while on the other hand, Europe decided to stop importing Iranian oil, without setting any specific dates. This means:
•That Iran has arranged an alternative for the European oil market - and especially Greece - through China, but has also arranged its banking alternatives via Chinese banks.
•That Iran succeeded in twisting Washington’s arm and is facing the European stubbornness with a mixture of diplomacy and shows of power.
•That Iran agreed to grant Turkey a role in the negotiations provided that it changes its position towards the Syrian crisis, as it was stated by the head of the security committee in the Iranian parliament.
•That Iran managed to steal the international spotlight and to lead it away from the Syrian crisis, which constituted a counterattack whose signs started emerging in parallel to the American withdrawal from Iraq.

New Orient News (Lebanon)
Editor in chief: Wassim Raad
Orient Tendencies No 63, 9 January, 2012.

All the versions of this article:
- L’ascesa della potenza iraniana e i nuovi equilibri